When, on January 6, 2021, thousands of Trump supporters stormed the US Congress on the Capital Hill in Washington DC, some conspiracy theorists saw in it the beginning of the ‘Divided States of America.’ Several such speculations have been made in the past as well.
Globally, the process of disintegration of a country remains slow, almost imperceptible. A country like America, which lost its ethnic core of “Red Indians” some six centuries ago and had to reconstruct it almost entirely by importing immigrants is not easy to go under.
As long as immigrants from around the planet are ready to flock to the ‘New World’, and America has space to settle them, the US may continue to survive. It has the resources, it welcomes innovation, and it tolerates dissent. These are the basic strength of the world’s only superpower at present. But a lack of ethnic core is also the USA’s major weakness.
In crisis, America sometimes resembles the shape-changing hero portrayed by actor Jim Carrey in the Hollywood blockbuster, The Mask. If an identity crisis between the Whites and others deepens, the panicked immigrants, even after generations, can return to their motherland the way the Jews returned from Europe to Israel a century ago. This may dry up both investment and innovation, the life blood of American economy.
Most other countries, on the other hand, primarily strong because of their ethnic core being the biggest source of cohesion and strength. All others are bracketed together as ‘minorities’ and, in the long run, their importance declines.
Ever since the Soviet Union collapsed, and Russia returned to its ethnic core of Russians, dire prophesies of America’s imminent ‘collapse’ have been made.
For example, a Japanese academic journal carried an article in September 2020 by Kobayashi Koichi, Professor of International Politics at Nagoya University, claiming that the USA is “very likely” to suddenly split and collapse in the next 10 years!
It counted three factors that may split the USA: (1) A deep-rooted racial discrimination; (2) increasingly exhausted vitality of the internal mechanism of the American democratic system, and (3) the people’s claims for excessive freedom and the contradiction between reality and capacity.
These three contradictions have become chronic and seasonal diseases that the American society cannot get rid of, it said.
Citing examples of racial discrimination, the journal said racial riots have now spread to the White-dominated areas as well, as rioters can be mobilized quickly due to extensive use of technology. Also, radical White groups and armed militias have surfaced at many places, as (then) President Donald Trump “fanned the fire all the day”, creating internal and external divisions. “Is it a symptom of America’s structural decline?
According to a 2019 survey of the Brookings Institution, the changes in the ethnic populations of the US are revealing. In 1980, White Americans accounted for 79.6 percent of the population, and the rest were mainly blacks, including Latinos, Asians and other non-whites. In 2018, the Whites’ percentage in population declined to 60.4 percent, and that of the non-Whites soured to nearly 40 percent. Thus, the number of Whites dropped 20 percent in just 40 years.
The White population under 15 years of age dropped from 73 percent in 1980 to 49.9 percent in 2018, If this trend continues for the next 20 years, the Whites will number less than half of the national population, and Whites under-30 will become a clear minority. This quantitative change in demographic structure will fundamentally change American politics.
Now more non-Whites control power both right from the federal to the local levels, and they redistribute economic and social resources through legislation. This fundamental change in political power and social and economic resources will exacerbate social divisions and bring suffering.
Clearly, the ‘ethnic core’ of America has shifted from the Whites to the non-Whites, which got expression in the elections of Barack Obama and Joe Biden as Presidents.
Rapid growth of militant White groups, including the rise of Donald Trump, was because of an intense White fear. No matter who won the 2020 Presidential election, the other side could fall into despair and anger, the Institution said.
The January 6 violence at the US Congress was an expression of this phenomenon.
The global coronavirus pandemic also broke the illusion of the US resilience as the nation became the worst-performing country in the world, as freedom-fatigued people broke the Covid-19 restriction at will.
The present American governance not only does not help, but further worsens the situation. It also allows the original racial, economic and cultural ills to be concurrent and out of control, the survey said.
According to the report, a great schism between the Whites and the Black will be “full of blood and hatred” in the historical shadow of Black Americans’ trafficking, enslavement, exploitation and injustice. The US is a nuclear-armed country with the most nuclear weapons in the world. A possible disintegration of the United States will, therefore, be far more serious than the former Soviet Union’s. “It will be a disaster for mankind, which is unimaginable”.
Such ‘prophesies’ have continued.
Even after the 46th President, Joe Biden, took oath on January 20, 2021, speculations are rife. The hold of non-Whites on the American system has only strengthened, with Vice-President Kamala Harris becoming the first Indian-American, Asian, and woman to grace this second-highest office in Washington. Biden has also appointed, among others, 20 Indian-Americans to higher posts.
The basic DNA of the USA has changed from Europeanization to Orientalization.
And conspiracy theories are, of course, mushrooming.
One such theorist said that the CIA rigged the 2020 Presidential elections and ousted Trump at the behest of the war industry tycoons who felt insecure as the US President brought in too much peace. He waged no new wars, improved the Israeli-Arab relationship, and offered a truce to North Korea. The military-industrial complex may also have ‘contributed’ to Trump’s defeat.
Under Biden, the old regime is back.